TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – The National Hurricane Center has found a closed center of circulation embedded in deep convection over the Bahamas. Tropical Depression Three has sustained winds at 30 mph and is moving northwest at 13 mph. It should begin to turn north-northwest and then to the north through Tuesday night.

Storm Team 8 started tracking the tropical disturbance over the weekend. The NHC initially gave it just a low 30 percent chance of developing, but in an outlook sent out Monday afternoon they bumped it up to 60 percent. Convection has flared up in the past 24 hours indicating the showers and storms were organizing.

According to the NHC, environmental conditions are only “marginally conducive” for further development.

The disturbance is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over parts of the northwest Bahamas through Monday night. The NHC says showers and thunderstorms could also spread over parts of the east coast of Florida through Tuesday. 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible in the Bahamas and south Florida.

By mid week, an unusually strong cold front will drop south, absorb the depression and sweep it out to sea. However, the front will stall leaving moisture to linger and keep elevated rain chances in the forecast for much of the state.