TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — After an unusually quiet August in the Tropics so far- we are now seeing signs of activity in the Atlantic.
There are four areas that forecast models show may potentially develop.
Of the four areas, only one has a high chance to develop over the next 5 days.
The area that has the best chance to develop is a broad area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. It does not have a defined center of rotation and the environmental conditions will not be conducive for significant development.
It is likely that a Tropical Depression will form this week as the system moves to the west north-west between 5-10 mph.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) places a 50% chances on the system to develop over the next 48 hours and a 80% chance for it to develop over the next five days.
This system bears watching — long term forecast models bring this system close to Florida after Labor Day Weekend. The longest range forecast models either stall it over the Bahamas or show it veering sharply away from the coast and back out into the open Atlantic.
It’s too soon to tell if this will bring any impact to Florida- we will keep you updated as we know more.
The other two areas are close by, in the Atlantic. Both have only low chances for development.
One of the areas is a broad group of thunderstorms moving off of the coast of Africa. The NHC has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.
The other area is in the north central Atlantic. The NHC only places a 10% chance on it to develop.
The fourth area to watch for potential development is a trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is moving slowly to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Depending on how it survives the path across the Yucatan, it may have better chances to develop once it enters the western Gulf. It may be a significant rain event for eastern Mexico or possibly even Texas.