TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — It’s been nearly two months since a tropical system last formed in the Atlantic basin, but that’s expected to change later this week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two systems in the Atlantic basin – one of which, Invest 91L, will “likely” become a tropical depression in the coming days.
The NHC has deemed a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic as Invest 91L. The area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, the NHC says.
According to a Tuesday afternoon tropical weather outlook, Invest 91L is expected to gradually develop in the coming days, despite environmental conditions only being “marginally conducive.” The NHC expects a tropical depression to form late this week or over the weekend, and the system could eventually become a tropical storm.
Forecasters with the NHC say Invest 91L will move to the west, and then to the northwest, slowly – at just 5 to 10 mph.
“The computer models with it do trend it north before it makes it to the Bahamas, and not closer to the United States coastline,” Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Leigh Spann said. “But we’re gonna keep an eye on it until it really starts to develop and we get a better idea.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, the system has a medium 50 percent chance of formation through 48 hours and a high 80 percent chance of formation within the next five days.
If Invest 91L does become a named storm, Danielle is the next name on the list. Our last named storm, Tropical Storm Colin, formed over South Carolina on July 2. Since then, we’ve experienced an unusually-long quiet stretch in the tropics.
The NHC is also keeping an eye on a tropical wave that recently emerged off the coast of Africa and could become a short-lived depression later this week.
“Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days,” the NHC said in a tropical weather outlook.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development later this week. It could, however, bring heavy rain to parts of the Cabo Verde Islands.
“We’re going to keep an eye on it but it’s too far north for it to end up affecting our area,” Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Rebecca Barry said.
The NHC has given the wave a low 20 percent chance of formation through 48 hours and has bumped it up to a medium 40 percent chance of formation through the next five days.
Tracking the Tropics streams at 2 p.m. ET every Wednesday during hurricane season. For the latest updates, check out our Tracking the Tropics website.