Tracking the Tropics: Medium chance for development in southern Gulf this week

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – Tropical Storm Amanda formed off the coast of Guatemala in the Pacific this morning. Shortly after being named, the center of Amanda came ashore.

Tropical Storm Amanda is forecast to quickly weaken into a remnant low or dissipate altogether as it moves north over mountainous terrain.

If the remnants move far enough north into the Bay of Campeche, there is a medium chance of redevelopment by mid-week; 40% over the next two days and 50% over the next 5 days. Models then bring the area of moisture north into the western Gulf of Mexico.

This will increase the amount of deep tropical moisture in the area and rain chances will go up.

As far as naming goes, if Tropical Storm Amanda keeps any of it’s original circulation as it’s being torn apart by the mountains, it would keep the name Amanda.

However, the more likely scenario is a new area of circulation would develop. If enough organization and strengthening occurs, it would take on the next name on the Atlantic list, Cristobal.

If a new storm is named before June 5th in the Atlantic, it would be the earliest third named storm since naming began.

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