Tracking the tropics: Low to medium chance of development in southern Gulf next week

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — An area of showers and storms has developed west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Some slow organization is possible and the National Hurricane Center is monitoring it for possible tropical development.

Current two-day development chances are low, 10 percent, but the chances increase next week. The five day development chance has been increased to a 40% as of the 8 a.m. advisory.

For now, the showers and storms will meander over the next few days but a tropical depression could form into next week.

This would be the second named storm of the 2021 hurricane season. Ana, the first named storm, developed northeast of Bermuda in May before the season officially began.

The second name on the list is Bill.

Currently, long range forecast models move the deepest tropical moisture north into the Gulf late next week but most models keep it west of the Tampa Bay region.

Sea surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development, but the rest of the atmosphere would have to allow it to organize as well. Drier air from the Saharan desert may help to erode the eastern side of the system.

It is much too early to say if this will develop and where it will go. It is just an area of showers and storms as of Saturday. For now, stay tuned to the forecast and watch for updates on Tracking the Tropics.

The rest of the tropics remain quiet, and no other development is expected over the next five days.

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