Tracking the Tropics: 90% chance system in western Caribbean develops

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — As Hurricane Epsilon moves away from Bermuda, all eyes are focused on a developing disturbance in the Caribbean sea.

Invest 95L has a 90% chance of developing over the next two days and according the NHC, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.

The winds are beginning to wrap around a central location and the showers and thunderstorms are becoming abundant near the center of lower surface pressures.

Hurricane Hunters will fly into the storm this afternoon to get a better idea of how organized the system currently is.

The disturbance will slowly move north over the next couple of days. Current forecast models bring a weak system into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The long range “spaghetti models” are not in good agreement on where this will travel or how organized (strong) it will be. This means confidence is very low on the extended forecast and it is uncertain if the Tampa Bay area will see any impacts.

Invest 95L forecast models through next Thursday. Models are not in good agreement on the forecast and confidence is low on track and strength next week.

At this time, the models bring a weak system into the Central Gulf leaving the Tampa Bay area with slim rain chances each day next week. However, changes to this forecast are possible if the system moves farther east.

Many factors are affecting the forecast and everyone from South Florida to Louisiana should check in often for updates.


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