TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will likely form Thursday night or Friday morning.
The area of low pressure has spent several days meandering in the area of the Bay of Campeche but is slowly getting organized. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring the system and still gives it a high chance of development, 90% over the next two and five days.
The low will drift north into the Gulf of Mexico by later Thursday and continue to organize. A tropical depression is will likely form Thursday night. Even as it moves through the Gulf, it will likely stay a weaker system before it moves ashore in the northern Gulf Coast.
Tropical moisture is expected to accompany the system as it moves ashore somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast states, and rainfall accumulation totals could exceed six inches in localized spots but it is too soon to tell where. The moisture will travel inland and to the east bringing the heavy rain to areas in Mississippi and northern Georgia.
The main hazards with this system will likely be flash flooding concerns in impacted areas. Wind impacts will be minimal as the developing system is not expected to be a strong storm.
As with any landfalling tropical system, there will be a low threat threat for an isolated tornado to spin up as well as waterspouts moving ashore in the stronger rain bands.
Storm surge heights will be on the lower side with this being a weaker storm but two to four feet of water level rise could occur just to the right of where the storm makes landfall.