Tracking the Tropics: NHC monitoring Invest 95L in Atlantic

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — An area in the Atlantic Basin has been deemed an invest by the National Hurricane Center as it could eventually develop into a tropical system.

The NHC had been keeping a close eye on two areas in the Atlantic earlier Thursday but, as of 2 p.m., one of the disturbances has degenerated.

Invest 95L

A strong tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday morning and is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms over the far-east Atlantic has now been deemed Invest 95L. It was deemed an invest so the hurricane specific forecast models can begin to forecast where it may go.

The NHC says temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are still relatively cool and “only marginally conducive for development.” However, forecasters say a small tropical depression could form early next week as the disturbance moves west across the Atlantic.

Because the wave just emerged off the coast of Africa, it’s much too soon to tell where it will be 10 to 14 days from now and if it will develop and hold together. It is a wait and watch scenario for the next 10 or so days as it moves west through the southern Atlantic.

As of Thursday morning, the NHC has given the tropical wave a low 20 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium 40 percent formation chance through the next five days.

Disturbance

The disturbance that’s being monitored is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The area is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms but, according to a Thursday afternoon outlook from the NHC, it has degenerated into a trough.

“In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished with this system,” the NHC said.

The disturbance only has very low development chances because forecasters say upper-level winds are increasing and will likely prevent any further development as it moves west-northwestward. As of Thursday afternoon, it was given a near zero percent chance of development both through 48 hours and through five days.

“Even though development is not expected, the disturbance could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days,” the NHC said.

Less than one month into the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, we have already crossed three names off the list: Ana, Bill and Claudette.

The next storm that forms will be given the name Danny.

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