TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Colorado State University released its latest forecast of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season detailing the ongoing battle between a resilient El Niño and extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic.

“While a robust El Niño has developed and is likely to persist for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic has record warm sea surface
temperatures for this time of year,” lead author Philip Klotzbach said.

The report indicates that vertical wind shear should stifle some tropical development, but the unusually warm ocean temperatures may counteract some of El Niño’s positive effects.

For this reason, CSU said it will “maintain our forecast for an above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.”

That includes:

  • 90 named storm days
  • 18 named storms
  • 9 hurricanes
  • 35 hurricane days
  • 4 major hurricanes
  • 9 major hurricane days

The probability for at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to make landfall along any part of the U.S. east coast is 48%. The average is 43%.

The probability for a major hurricane to hit the east coast of the Florida Panhandle south of Cedar Key is 25%. The average is 21%.

Those chances increase to 31% for Gulf Coast residents west and north of Cedar Key.

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to
make it an active season for them.

Beginning in August, CSU said it will deliver two-week forecasts until the middle of October when hurricane season typically begins to die down.