Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico could bring heavy rain to Florida later this week

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could bring heavy rainfall to Florida in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The area of interest is over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC says it’s a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance that’s producing increased showers and thunderstorms.

The system is forecast to move slowly to the northeast in the coming days, over the central and northeastern Gulf.

Upper-level winds are not favorable for development right now but, according to the NHC, will become more conducive as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday. That could lead to some limited tropical or subtropical cyclone development, forecasters say.

After the disturbance nears the Gulf coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, the NHC says it’s then expected to cross the southeastern United States before emerging off the coast later this week. Once it’s emerged off the coast, the NHC says some slight additional development will be possible.

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, the system has been given a low 30 percent chance of development through 48 hours and a medium 40 percent formation chance through five days.

“Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday with localized flooding possible,” the NHC said in a Tuesday afternoon outlook.

According to the National Weather Service for the Tampa Bay area, the main concern locally will be increasing rain chances and rip currents later in the week.

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