Dorian struggling in dry air but still expected to strengthen this week

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – All eyes continue to be on Tropical Storm Dorian churning over the Lesser Antilles. Dorian is moving west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea at 13 mph with winds of 50 mph.

Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty and, based on the current forecast models, impacts to Florida are becoming more likely this weekend. However, what those impacts are and the magnitude are still unknown.

For now, the National Hurricane Center is urging residents in Florida to keep an eye on the storm and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings along with Hurricane Watches are posted for parts of the Caribbean.

Dorian is still anticipated to make a northward turn tonight and Wednesday to head toward the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

The center of Dorian passed directly over the island of St. Lucia which disrupted the storm. Dry air is also keeping the storm from strengthening very much. From satellite, it appears that dry air is intruding into the storm on the southern side. This will keep the inner core disorganized.

Dorian is in fact surrounded on all sides by dry air. Dorian will also have to overcome stronger wind shear in the near time if strengthening is to occur.

On the other hand, water temperatures are plenty warm enough to fuel Dorian as it travels through the Caribbean and in the Bahamas.

The battle of dry air, wind shear, warm water temperatures and the potential interaction with land are leading to a lower than normal confidence in the forecast Friday through Sunday.

There haven’t been any significant updates with the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The track remains unchanged and still brings Dorian to the Florida peninsula Sunday morning.

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April 24 2021 08:00 am

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