The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Atlantic positioned between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance, called Invest 96L, continues to move to the west northwest.
The system has had a difficult time organizing thanks to a plume of Saharan Dust. These batches of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere have a tendency to suppress tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center give Invest 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. That chance of development rises to 30% within the next five days, but that is down from 70% just a few days ago.
Most long-term models keep Invest 96L in a west northwest track moving it into the Lesser and Greater Antilles. At that point, environmental conditions may become a bit more unfavorable for the disturbance.
We will continue to monitor the progress of Invest 96L.