TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Florida Atlantic University’s Beracha and Johnson Housing Index, built in collaboration with Florida International University, is reporting housing prices may have reached their peak, or will soon, according to data analyzed at the end of August.
The Beracha and Johnson Index ranks U.S. housing markets by how much they are overvalued, using data on premium prices, to analyze trends and property costs. According to the FAU/FIU research, the larger a premium is, the more overpriced the market will be.
Data from July showed premiums declined in 27 markets, including high-cost metros like Austin, Texas, Denver, Colo., and Los Angeles, among others.
According to the research, the number of premiums decreasing show the individual housing markets across the U.S. might be at or near their high points, before coming down.
“The consistent increase in the number of premium downturns in our monthly reporting strongly suggests that individual housing markets are at, or will soon be experiencing, their pricing peaks,” Dr. Ken Johnson of FAU said. “We are at the turning point. The likelihood of significant price increases in the near future grows smaller by the day.”
The data shows, however, that the prices are still up higher than they should be, according to the index. The main problem is available inventory. Beracha and Johnson’s research data said “continuing inventory shortages and spiking populations” mean prices won’t see big drops, but that affordability in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina may be more persistent.
“There simply is not enough inventory to go around,” Dr. Eli Beracha of FIU said. “That undersupply will keep pressure on prices in many areas.”
Three Florida metros are in the top 10 for inflated prices due to market premiums, Fort Myers, Lakeland, and Tampa. The Beracha and Johnson Index showed Fort Myers at No. 3, Lakeland ranked No. 7 and Tampa ranked No. 9 for premium costs to buy a house, nationally. The North Port-Sarasota market ranked No. 11. Each of the Florida cities on the ranking of top 100 housing markets in the U.S. had a premium cost hike of 37% or higher.
The Miami-Fort Lauderdale market had the lowest proportional premium percentage among the Florida cities in the top 100, but across the state, it had one of the highest average prices. Fort Myers had the highest premium percentage at 62%. Tampa came in at 58.5% and Lakeland at 59%. Sarasota wasn’t far behind at a 55.75% premium, as of July data.
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