IHME’s Florida projections paint a grim picture after record amounts of new cases

By The Numbers

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – After reporting more than 5,000 new cases of coronavirus for the second day in a row, projections are worsening for the continued impacts of the health of Floridians.

Forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, were updated today for the first time since June 15.

The new projections, which uses national and international data to project show demand for hospital services, daily and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19, rates of infection and testing, and the impact of social distancing in each state.

The June 15 IHME projections were optimistic, showing a potential dip in daily deaths as fall months approach.
The June 24 projections paint a much more grim picture of the daily deaths related to coronavirus .

By Sept. 1, researchers have increased the expectation of daily deaths by more than 217 percent— from 47 deaths per day to 49 COVID-19 related deaths every day in Florida. citing record-high trends.

State officials are currently reporting more than 114,018 cases of the virus, a two-week increase of 47.5 since the last projections were published by the IHME in mid-June.

Nationwide, projections show 179,106 deaths are expected in the United States by Oct. 1— a more than 5 percent increase from projections made.

In comparison, the United Kingdom is only expecting around 50,000 coronavirus-related deaths by Oct. 1.

“We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission.”


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