COVID-19 projections expect Florida’s second wave to begin mid-September

By The Numbers

Coronavirus testing (WFLA photo)

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — As Florida battles record numbers of new coronavirus cases, projections are expecting Florida to surpass its original peak of daily deaths.

Newly-extended coronavirus forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine, gives a grim outlook on how things could turn in the fall.

The forecast predicts daily deaths in Florida will be over 47 in September. That surpasses the April 17 height of around 46 deaths per day in Florida.

Source: IHME

While the state has avoided the use of all available ICU beds, the forecast shows 1,712 hospital beds will be needed for COVID-19 patients by Sept. 25, surpassing the 1,696 beds available and leaving a shortage.

Source: IHME

Florida joins Arizona, Georgia and Colorado for the earliest uptick in deaths, likely due to the state’s swift reopening by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

State officials are currently reporting more than 77,300 cases of the virus, which the CDC says takes between two and 14 days for symptoms to appear.

Nationwide, projections show 169,890 deaths in the United States by Oct. 1, with a range reaching up to 290,222 potential deaths.

“We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission.”


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