University of Florida study predicts when delta surge is expected to peak

Coronavirus

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (WESH) — Hospitals have been filling up with more and more COVID-19 patients. But researchers at the University of Florida say we could be near the peak of the delta variant’s surge.

Experts believe it could come around Aug. 18.

Dr. Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics, was part of the UF team that put together this projection, of how the latest COVID-19 wave will look in Florida.

The peak is far higher than previous surges but the surge is also expected to cease more quickly.

Researchers found, that based on how the delta variant has progressed in places like India, the virus will run out of vulnerable people to infect.

“We have people that have prior immunity due to natural infections, we have vaccinated people who have protection, so there’s a balance and it will peak when it hits that balance,” Dr. Logini said.

Experts believe cases will drop in mid-August and continue to fall until November.

“It really means we will go back to levels we were at in June before the delta variant, and it will probably stay at that level more or less until another variant comes,” Dr. Logini said.

The researchers say the best way to prevent future surges is to follow the advice: get vaccinated, wear masks and keep your distance.

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