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Coronavirus in Florida: New data moves predicted peak impact up to April


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TAMPA, Fla (WFLA) – A study that originally predicted when Florida would see peak coronavirus impacts has moved up that date based on the state’s influx of cases over the last week.

Data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine released last week predicted Florida would see the peak use of its resources on May 3.

Researchers have since moved that date to April 21.

The models were developed using state and national public health data, as well as information from the World Health Organization, hospital capacity and utilization data.

Over the weekend, confirmed cases in the state climbed to 13,324. More than 1,500 people have been hospitalized and 236 have died.

Source: IHME

Models show that Floridians are only about two weeks away from the deadliest day for coronavirus deaths.

On April 21, researchers say Florida will have a median of 242 death.

Source: IHME

That’s an increase from the previous projection, which accounted for 174 deaths per day if the peak resource use was in early May.

Patients in the state will need an estimated 2,095 ventilators. By next week, models show that the state could run out of ICU beds, leading to an ICU bed shortage of more than 760.

The data is the first update to the original models since Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a statewide stay-at-home order.


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